(August 17, 2026, Industry Report)In the second half of 2026, the global semiconductor industry has entered a historic super upward cycle driven by surging demand for artificial intelligence computing power. The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) and TrendForce have simultaneously revised up industry forecasts, projecting that the global semiconductor market size will reach USD 1.51 trillion in 2026, with a year-on-year growth rate close to 90%, marking the fastest expansion rate in industry history. High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), AI accelerator chips, and advanced-node wafer foundry services serve as three core growth drivers. Meanwhile, capacity bottlenecks, geopolitical trade controls, and regional restructuring of industrial chains are reshaping the competitive landscape of the global chip sector for years to come.

The core engine of this industry boom stems from continuous expansion of global AI large model training and AI server infrastructure. Major cloud giants including Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Meta have repeatedly raised capital expenditure plans for the next two years. Massive new orders for AI servers have strongly boosted demand for computing chips and supporting high-speed memory. Different from cyclical fluctuations of traditional consumer electronics chips, investment in AI infrastructure features long-term sustainability. Institutional analysts generally agree that demand dividends related to computing chips will last until at least 2028.

Among all product segments, High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) stands as the tightest supply chain link at present. As an indispensable component paired with AI GPUs, HBM drastically cuts data transmission latency between processors and memory, forming the foundation for efficient large model operations. Currently, only Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and Micron possess large-scale mass production capacity for premium HBM solutions. Statistics show that the global HBM market scale is expected to exceed USD 54 billion in 2026, accounting for nearly 40% of the overall DRAM market. The three major memory manufacturers keep optimizing production structures by prioritizing wafer resources for HBM production lines, yet supply shortage remains above 50%. AI chip developers such as NVIDIA, AMD and Broadcom have signed long-term capacity reservation agreements with memory suppliers to secure production volume between 2026 and 2028, guaranteeing supply of high-end AI accelerators.

Capacity reallocation creates direct ripple effects: production capacity for conventional DRAM and NAND Flash targeting smartphones, PCs and consumer electronics keeps being squeezed. Supply-demand imbalance pushes memory prices upward continuously. TrendForce data indicates that DRAM contract prices rose 53%–58% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2026, while NAND Flash prices increased 55%–60% quarter-on-quarter. Multiple investment banks predict that the growth rate of memory chip prices will slow down in Q4 2026, yet the undersupply situation cannot be reversed rapidly. The primary constraint lies in the 2–3 year construction cycle of new wafer fabrication plants, which prevents rapid release of effective production capacity in the short term.

The wafer foundry market also shows divergent prosperity. TSMC’s production lines for advanced nodes of 7nm and below operate at full utilization, while the 2nm process enters small-scale mass production. Revenue from advanced manufacturing processes accounts for 77% of TSMC’s total revenue. The company has notified key customers of planned foundry price hikes of up to 10% starting from 2027. Faced with TSMC’s price adjustment, Samsung continuously strengthens its foundry business. It recently reached a strategic cooperation with Broadcom, leveraging its integrated solution combining 2nm manufacturing and HBM to compete for AI chip outsourcing orders. Meanwhile, demand for mature nodes (28nm, 40nm, 65nm) recovers steadily. Demand from new energy vehicles, industrial control and power semiconductors sustains stable utilization rates of mature wafer fabs.

Advanced packaging emerges as a new competition track in the post-Moore’s Law era. As chip manufacturing processes approach physical limits, continuously shrinking transistor sizes incur rising costs. Heterogeneous integration through advanced packaging has become a mainstream industrial approach to improve chip performance. TSMC CoWoS, Intel EMIB and Samsung 2.5D packaging capacity are fully occupied, accompanied by extended delivery cycles for advanced packaging equipment, substrates and testing materials. SEMI forecasts that the global advanced packaging market will exceed USD 56 billion in 2026, forming a new growth engine of the industrial chain. Industry consensus has formed: advanced packaging is no longer merely a post-production manufacturing procedure, but an essential component of chip system design.

Geopolitical tensions continue to introduce uncertainties to global chip supply chains. In the first half of 2026, the U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) further upgraded semiconductor export controls. It added new regulatory restrictions covering equipment for HBM manufacturing, wafer bonding, TSV etching and other advanced packaging processes, restricting shipments to multiple domestic memory and advanced packaging enterprises in China. Regulatory constraints keep expanding to memory products, advanced packaging and semiconductor equipment, rather than being limited to advanced logic chips. Escalating trade rules drive the global industrial chain to shift from a single globalized system toward regionalized and diversified layout.

The trend of supply chain restructuring is clear. Multinational chip enterprises adopt parallel production layouts covering China and alternative regions. SK Hynix resumes Phase II expansion of its NAND factory in Dalian, China, while continuously investing in domestic wafer clusters in South Korea. Micron accelerates construction of its packaging and testing base in India. Multiple Taiwanese supply chain players are evaluating factory construction plans in Southeast Asia. At the same time, China’s domestic semiconductor industry promotes independent innovation continuously. Breakthroughs are achieved in mature-node manufacturing, etching, thin-film deposition, testing equipment and semiconductor materials, lowering operational risks caused by fluctuations in overseas supply chains.

On capital expenditure front, global memory manufacturers launch a new round of large-scale investment. According to the latest SEMI report, global equipment investment for 300mm memory wafer fabs will surpass USD 52 billion for the first time in 2026, representing a 29% year-on-year increase. SK Hynix announced a more than USD 38 billion expansion plan for wafer production in South Korea, and Samsung continues to invest in 1c-generation DRAM production lines. However, after several rounds of industrial cycles, manufacturers adopt rational expansion strategies. They avoid blind massive expansion of general memory capacity, and concentrate resources on high-value products including HBM and automotive memory.

Significant industry risks remain. First, capital expenditure for AI infrastructure faces volatility risks. If global cloud providers slow down server construction, demand for computing chips and HBM will face immediate pressure. Second, continuously rising chip prices will gradually transmit costs to end markets, suppressing demand for consumer products. Third, newly added production capacity will come online within the next two years, and the supply-demand balance of the memory market may reach an inflection point around 2028. Fourth, industrial policies across nations remain in constant negotiation, and export control regulations may undergo further adjustments.

Looking ahead, analysts share a mainstream consensus: the AI-driven semiconductor super cycle differs from short-term recoveries led by consumer electronics in previous decades. In the next two years, computing chips, HBM, advanced packaging and power semiconductors will maintain strong prosperity. The core competition focus of the industry has transformed. Instead of simply competing on advanced manufacturing nodes, enterprises now compete on comprehensive strength across the whole industrial chain: chip design, manufacturing, memory, advanced packaging, equipment and materials. Global semiconductor companies need to strike a balance between capacity layout, supply chain security and technological research. A long-term industrial competition centered on the artificial intelligence era has fully begun.